A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
