Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
